Message 28956 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 29 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21548_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260829/0046Z 36268@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260829/0046Z 203@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260829/0045Z 73503@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260829/0035Z 7161@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260829/0031Z 21548@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 290031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2026
Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 1.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 1.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 1.67 1.00
15-18UT 3.67 1.00 1.00
18-21UT 2.67 1.67 0.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, coupled
with the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026
Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2026
Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug 31
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Aug.
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