Message 28919 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 28 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <21482_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260828/1406Z 36236@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260828/1406Z 19200@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260828/1404Z 7134@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260828/1231Z 21482@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 281231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4513 (N04W36,
Dai/beta-gamma) continued a trend of slight decay and produced a C1.1
flare at 28/0422 UTC; the largest of the period. Region 4518 (N08E26,
Cro/beta) produced some B-class activity and underwent minor development
over the past 24 hours. The remaining regions were stable. A few
rudimentary spots emerged near S13E45 but this area remained unnumbered,
pending additional observation. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for
M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity on 28-30 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,730 pfu observed at 27/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 28-30 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 30 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels during the first half of
the period, and became slightly enhanced during the latter half of the
period following the likely onset of +CH HSS influences. Total magnetic
field strength reached 9 nT, and the Bz component reached as far south
as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from 250 km/s to around
300 km/s, and the phi angle transitioned from negative to positive at
around 28/0630 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 28-29 Aug due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of CMEs
that departed the Sun on 25-26 Aug. Mildly enhanced conditions may
persist into early 30 Aug as CH HSS and CME influences subside.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely on
28-29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated
arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug. Active conditions are
likely on 30 Aug as CH HSS and CME influences subside.
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