Message 28918 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 28 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21481_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260828/1406Z 36235@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260828/1406Z 19199@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260828/1404Z 7133@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260828/1231Z 21481@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
00-03UT 1.00 5.67 (G2) 2.67
03-06UT 0.67 5.67 (G2) 3.67
06-09UT 1.00 4.67 (G1) 3.67
09-12UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.67
12-15UT 2.67 3.67 1.67
15-18UT 3.67 3.67 1.00
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 1.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.67
Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 28-29 Aug due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and the
anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Aug.
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More Info: N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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