Message 28891 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 28 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21460_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260828/0226z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:21460_N4SD
R:260828/0222Z 122@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260828/0221Z 73426@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260828/0214Z 7098@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260828/0031Z 21460@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 280031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
00-03UT 2.33 5.67 (G2) 3.67
03-06UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.33
06-09UT 4.00 4.00 3.00
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 3.00
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 3.33
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 3.33
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely due to the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Later on 28 Aug, G2 (Moderate) storm
levels are likely due to additional disturbances caused by the
anticipated arrival of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug. G1 to G2
storm levels are likely to persist through 29 Aug before waning
conditions are expected on 30 Aug.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: here is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 30 Aug, mostly due to the
potential for activity from Region 4513.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2026
Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug 30
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1/R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event
through 30 Aug primarily due to the current potential and flare history
of Region 4513.
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