Message 28784 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 27 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <21402_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260827/1408Z 36098@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260827/1408Z 19118@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260827/1405Z 7074@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/1231Z 21402@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 271231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4513 (N04W25,
Dac/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited signs of slight decay, but managed to
maintain mixed polarity in its intermediate penumbra. AR 4513 remained
the culprit for the majority of activity producing low level C-class
flares with a C5.2 at 27/0141 UTC being the largest of the period. Newly
numbered Region 4518 (S02E35, Bxi/beta) tacked C-class flares as well to
include a C1.3 and a C3.4 at 26/1912 UTC and 26/2140 UTC, respectively.
No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
A high chance for isolated M-class flare activity will persist through
29 Aug primarily due to the current potential and flare history of
Region 4513.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,50 pfu at 27/1125 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
returned to background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mostly
high levels through 27 Aug before returning to moderate levels on 28-29
Aug. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 29 Aug, mostly due to the
potential for activity from Region 4513.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like regime. Total field was
at or below 5 nt and the Bz component was near neutral. Solar wind
speeds fell below 300 km/s and phi was in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast...
Onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences are anticipated by the end
of 27 Aug. Additional solar wind disturbances, with increased
solar wind densities and total IMF, are likely on 28-29 Aug due to the
impact of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels during the day.
.Forecast...
By late 27 Aug, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely, due to
the onset of CH HSS conditions. G2 (Minor) storms are likely on 28 and
29 Aug due to additional disturbances caused by the anticipated arrival
of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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