Message 28783 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 27 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21401_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260827/1408Z 36097@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260827/1408Z 19117@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260827/1404Z 7073@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/1231Z 21401@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 271231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
00-03UT 1.33 5.67 (G2) 5.67 (G2)
03-06UT 0.67 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 0.67 4.00 4.00
09-12UT 0.67 4.00 3.00
12-15UT 3.00 3.67 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 4.00 2.67
18-21UT 4.33 4.00 2.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.00
Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely
through 29 Aug due to both CH HSS and CME arrival influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a strong chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all
three days.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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