Message 28759 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 27 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21384_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260827/0057Z 36078@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260827/0056Z 58893@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/0047Z 73356@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260827/0043Z 7046@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/0031Z 21384@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 270031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
00-03UT 1.33 5.67 (G2) 5.67 (G2)
03-06UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 3.33 4.00 4.00
09-12UT 3.00 4.00 3.00
12-15UT 3.33 3.67 3.33
15-18UT 3.67 4.00 2.67
18-21UT 4.33 4.00 2.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67
Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely
through 29 Aug due to both CH HSS and CME arrival influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 26 2026 0634 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 27-Aug 29 2026
Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug 29
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% ellite downlink
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