Message 28758 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 27 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <21383_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260827/0057Z 36077@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260827/0056Z 58892@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/0044Z 73355@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260827/0033Z 7045@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260827/0031Z 21383@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 270031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class activity
originated at Region 4513 (N04W17, Dac/beta-gamma): an M2.2/1b flare at
26/0634 UTC, that was accompanied by a Type-II radio sweep (est.
velocity of 930 km/s) and Tenflare (140 sfu), and an M1.0/Sf at 26/1214
UTC. This region showed some decay during the day, but still remains the
largest and most complex of the visible solar disk. It is followed
closely by the growing Region 4517 (N09W31, Dai/beta-gamma). Two new
regions emerged at the NE quadrant and were numbered during the period:
Region 4518 (N07E43, Cri/beta) and Region 4519 (N28E53, Bxo/beta). With
them, a total of six active regions were observed in the past 24h.
Region 4518 was the main responsible for the C-level flares of the day.
Coronagraph imagery from STEREO/C2 suggested that the M2.2/1B flare was
accompanied by a narrow Earth-directed CME, but proper observation and
analysis of this event were limited by its configuration (central disk
source, narrow and faint structure) and data availability. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were identified in the available coronagraph imagery
during the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely to remain at Minor-Moderate (R1-R2) levels,
with a slight chance for Strong (R3) activity through 29 Aug, mostly due
to the flare history and potential of Regions 4513, 4517 and 4518.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,650 pfu at 26/1625 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
returned to background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels through 27 Aug, returning to moderate levels on 28-29 Aug.
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) storm levels through 29 Aug, mostly due to the
activity, location and development of Region 4513.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at undisturbed levels with solar wind speeds
decreasing from 325 km/s to 275 km/s during the day, total field
slightly oscillating around 4 nT and Bz between +/- 2nT. Phi angle
remained predominantly negative during the day.
.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to continue until midday
on 27 Aug, when the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences is
anticipated. Additional solar wind disturbances, with increased
solar wind densities and total IMF, are likely on 28-29 Aug due to the
impact of the CMEs that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels during the day.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through midday on
27 Aug under ambient solar wind conditions. By mid to late on 27 Aug,
unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely, due to the onset of CH
HSS conditions. G2 (Minor) storms are likely on 28 and 29 Aug due to
additional disturbances caused by the anticipated arrival of the CMEs
that left the Sun on 25-26 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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