Message 28699 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 26 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21339_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|W1BKW|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX10 KWNP 260031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 26-Aug 28 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 26-Aug 28 2026
Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28
00-03UT 1.00 3.67 5.67 (G2)
03-06UT 0.67 3.33 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 0.67 3.33 4.00
09-12UT 0.33 3.00 4.00
12-15UT 0.33 3.67 3.67
15-18UT 0.67 3.67 4.00
18-21UT 1.00 3.67 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 27-28 Aug due to the combined influences of a coronal hole high speed
stream and the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Aug.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 26-Aug 28 2026
Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms will persist through 28
Aug given the currently level of activity and potential displayed by
Region 4513.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 25 2026 1002 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 26-Aug 28 2026
Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug 28
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 28
Aug due to the flare potential currently exhibited by Region 4513.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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