Message 28661 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21326_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260825/1343Z 36024@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260825/1342Z 25249@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260825/1231Z 21326@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
00-03UT 1.33 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
06-09UT 1.33 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 1.00 1.33 1.67
12-15UT 1.67 0.67 2.33
15-18UT 0.67 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 0.67 1.67 4.00
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms will persist through 27
Aug given the currently level of activity and potential displayed by
Region 4513.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 25 2026 1002 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely through 27
Aug due to the flare potential currently exhibited by Region 4513.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
← Return to Bulletin List