Message 28632 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21307_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260825/0039Z 35994@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260825/0038Z 58749@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260825/0037Z 73247@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260825/0033Z 6961@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260825/0031Z 21307@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 1.67
12-15UT 1.67 0.67 2.33
15-18UT 0.67 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 0.67 1.67 4.00
21-00UT 1.33 1.67 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
S1 or greater 30% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 25 Aug, with a slight chance for S1 levels on
26-27 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 24 2026 1936 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 25-Aug 27 2026
Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug 27
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 25-27 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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