Message 28549 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21253_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260823/1317Z 35919@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260823/1316z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:21253_N4SD
R:260823/1316Z 25098@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260823/1231Z 21253@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026 is 2.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
00-03UT 0.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 0.67 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
S1 or greater 25% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 23 Aug, and a slight chance on 24-25 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 23-25 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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