Message 28538 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21222_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260823/0920Z 35907@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260823/0920z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:21222_N4SD
R:260823/0919Z 25081@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260823/0858Z 6860@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260823/0031Z 21222@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026 is 1.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
00-03UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
03-06UT 1.33 1.33 1.67
06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026
Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong or greater) event over
23-25 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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