Message 28537 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 23 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <21221_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260823/0902Z 35906@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260823/0902Z 25080@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260823/0848Z 6859@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260823/0031Z 21221@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 4513 (N04E39,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced multiple, weak C-flares this period. The region
has demonstrated some separation in the intermediate portion, but
maintains a clear gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 4516
(N16W30, Bxo/beta) and 4517 (N10E25, Bxo/beta) were numbered. The
remaining regions were largely unchanged from the previous period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-flare
(R3/Strong or greater) over 23-25 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux increased to a peak of 6 pfu, but remained below
S1 (Minor) levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
23-25 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
below S1 (Minor) levels, returning to near background levels over 23-25
Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CH HSS influences and the
return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength averaged
around 5 nT, and the Bz component was predominately neutral and
northward. Solar wind speeds decreased from a peak of 500 km/s to around
425 km/s. The phi orientation was mostly northward.
.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 23-25 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
over 23-25 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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