Message 28479 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 22 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <21196_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260822/1414z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:21196_N4SD
R:260822/1405Z 58550@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260822/1405Z 73086@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260822/1404Z 6826@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260822/1231Z 21196@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 22-Aug 24 2026
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
00-03UT 1.33 3.00 1.67
03-06UT 0.67 2.00 1.33
06-09UT 0.67 2.00 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 1.33
12-15UT 1.67 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
21-00UT 1.67 2.33 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
S1 or greater 40% 20% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 22 Aug, and a slight chance on 23-24 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22-Aug 24 2026
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 22-24 Aug, and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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