Message 28322 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 26 12:16:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20990_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 201216
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 20 1215 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate level with the occurrence of three
M-class (R1-R2: Minor-Moderate) flares from Region 4513 (N04E66,
Dao/beta): a M1.0 at 19/1851 UTC, a M1.8/Sf at 20/0805 UTC and the
largest flare of the period, a M8.1 at 20/1142 UTC. The M8.1 flare was
accompanied by Type-II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 1,201 km/s).
Regions 4513 and 4507 (N04W75, Ehi/beta-gamma-delta) were responsible
for most of the C-class activity of the past 24h. A new Region 4514
(S10W49, Cro/beta) was numbered while two other regions rotated off the
West limb, resulting in 4 regions currently in the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 20-22 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to cross the 1,000 pfu
threshold on 20 Aug, and remain at high levels on 21-22 Aug due to CH
HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 22 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influences of a negative
polarity coronal hole HSS. Total magnetic field strength remained around
5 nT with Bz component oscillating between +/- 5 nT during the period.
Solar wind speeds were mostly about 550 km/s and phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters near Earth are likely to continue reflecting
waning influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream
through 22 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled during the period.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels over 20-22 as the
ongoing CH HSS influences near Earth wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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