Message 28300 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 26 00:35:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20975_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260820/0135Z 35710@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260820/0134Z 18572@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260820/0134Z 72897@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260820/0130Z 6673@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260820/0035Z 20975@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 200031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 20-Aug 22 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 20-Aug 22 2026
Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22
00-03UT 3.67 4.00 3.00
03-06UT 3.33 2.00 4.00
06-09UT 3.67 1.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 2.67
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 2.00 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.67 1.00
21-00UT 3.00 3.00 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2026
Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 19 2026 1851 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 20-Aug 22 2026
Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 20-22 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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