Message 28267 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 19 Aug 26 12:12:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20953_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260819/1428Z 35679@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260819/1427Z 24729@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260819/1212Z 20953@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 191211
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 19 1210 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2026
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
00-03UT 2.67 4.00 4.00
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
09-12UT 4.33 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 Aug due to the
ongoing negative CH HSS influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2026
Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 19-21 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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