Message 28211 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 18 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20896_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260818/1536Z 35630@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260818/1536Z 24646@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260818/1535Z 4810@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260818/1531Z 6578@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260818/1232Z 20896@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18-Aug 20 2026
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
00-03UT 4.00 3.67 4.00
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.33
06-09UT 3.33 4.00 3.33
09-12UT 2.33 3.67 3.00
12-15UT 3.67 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 3.00 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 Aug due to the
influences of a CME and/or CIR.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2026
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2026
Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events through 20 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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