Message 28144 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 26 12:54:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20819_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260817/1427Z 35572@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260817/1413Z 18360@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260817/1411Z 72712@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260817/1411Z 6514@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260817/1254Z 20819@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 171253
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity observed from
Regions 4506 (N12W53, Dso/beta), 4507 (N04W37, Eai/beta-gamma) and
4510 (N13W67, Hsx/alpha). The largest flare of the period was a C8.2/Sn
observed at 16/1928 UTC from Region 4506. A slow moving CME was detected
from this event, but was modelled and analyzed to not affect Earth. The
remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay.
.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares are expected through 19 Aug, with a slight
chance (20%) for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels 17-19 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 19 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total
magnetic field strength was at under 5 nT, but rose slightly to about 7
nT at 17/0800 UTC. The Bz component was at +/-5-6 nT. Solar wind speeds
remained low, with speeds observed between ~290-335 km/s. Phi angle was
in a mostly positive orientation.
.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over
14 Aug are likely over 17-18 Aug. A return to nominal conditions is
expected on 19 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
On Aug 17-18, unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor),
is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 14 Aug.
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 19 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
← Return to Bulletin List