Message 28086 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 17 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20766_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260817/0233z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:20766_N4SD
R:260817/0213Z 58096@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260817/0213Z 72661@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260817/0209Z 6471@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260817/0032Z 20766@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 170031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2026
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19
00-03UT 2.00 2.67 1.33
03-06UT 3.00 4.00 1.33
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 1.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.67 1.33
12-15UT 3.00 2.67 1.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.67 1.00 1.67
21-00UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2026
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 17-Aug 19 2026
Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 17-19 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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