Message 28048 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20717_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260816/1405z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:20717_N4SD
R:260816/1354Z 58049@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260816/1354Z 72621@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260816/1352Z 6441@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260816/1232Z 20717@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 161231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to C-class activity observed from
Regions 4506 (N12W39, Dao/beta-gamma), 4507 (N04W22, Eai/beta-gamma) and
4508 (N07E10, Cso/beta). The remaining numbered active regions were
either mostly stable or in gradual decay.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (15%) for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 18 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels 16-18 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 18 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total
magnetic field strength was at under 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained
low, with speeds observed between ~330-360 km/s. Phi angle was variable.
.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters from a CME that left the Sun over
14 Aug are likely over 17-18 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at mostly quiet levels on 16 Aug.
On Aug 17-18, an increase to active levels, with a chance for G1
(Minor), is anticipated with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on
14 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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