Message 28047 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 16 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20716_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260816/1405z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:20716_N4SD
R:260816/1352Z 58048@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260816/1352Z 72620@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260816/1351Z 6440@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260816/1232Z 20716@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 16-Aug 18 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 16-Aug 18 2026
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
00-03UT 1.33 2.00 2.67
03-06UT 1.67 3.00 4.00
06-09UT 2.00 2.67 3.00
09-12UT 1.67 4.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 2.67
15-18UT 1.33 3.00 2.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.67 1.00
21-00UT 1.67 3.00 2.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2026
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 16-Aug 18 2026
Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug 18
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 16-18 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
← Return to Bulletin List