Message 27974 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20635_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260815/0235Z 35432@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260815/0235Z 24143@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260815/0231Z 4489@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260815/0227Z 6362@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260815/0032Z 20635@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 150031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 15-Aug 17 2026
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
00-03UT 3.33 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.33
06-09UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026
Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug 17
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
← Return to Bulletin List