Message 27855 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20537_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260814/0217Z 35380@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260814/0210z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:20537_N4SD
R:260814/0210Z 24061@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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R:260814/0032Z 20537@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2026
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.33 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
15-18UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2026
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2026
Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 14-16 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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