Message 27844 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20480_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260813/1512Z 35366@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260813/1511z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:20480_N4SD
R:260813/1511Z 24003@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260813/1232Z 20480@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 131231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 4507 (N04E15, Dso/beta)
formed new spots in its intermediate area and Region 4509 (N12W61,
Dai/beta) developed asymmetric surrounding its leading spot. New spots
formed ahead of AR 4506 and were subsequently numbered as Region 4510
(N12W15, Bxo/beta). The remaining active regions were either stable or
in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (10%) for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 15 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels through 14 Aug before increasing to high levels on 15
Aug under positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels 13-15 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like environment. Total field
was generally below 5 nT and the Bz component was near neutral. Solar
wind speeds decreased to under 400 km/s by the end of the period and phi
was predominantly in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
By late on 13 Aug or early on 14 Aug, enhancements are anticipated with
the arrival of a corotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a +CH HSS.
Enhanced solar wind conditions will then persist through 15 Aug under
+CH HSS influences.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through 13
Aug. On 14-15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response
to +CH HSS influences with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming
or greater.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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