Message 27822 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20454_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|N3MEL|N4SD
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R:260813/0031Z 20454@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 130031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C1.7 flare from Region 4508 (N07E56, Hax/alpha) at 12/0733 UTC.
Five sunspot regions are currently on the visible disk with most
undergoing growth. Region 4503 (S17W39, Dao/beta) exhibited new flux
emergence. Region 4506 (N12E10, Cri/beta) showed new flux emergence both
ahead and behind the existing spots, nearly developing a mixed magnetic
configuration. Region 4507 (N04E29, Dso/beta) showed the most
significant development, experiencing new flux emergence and
consolidation, and may also be developing a mixed magnetic
configuration. Region 4508 remained a stable unipolar group. Region 4509
(N12W47, Cro/beta) was newly emerged and numbered this period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low 13-15 Aug, though there
is an increasing but slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares, primarily driven by the development observed in Regions 4503 and
4507.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels, reaching a peak flux of 336 pfu at 12/2120 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels through 14 Aug before increasing to high levels on 15
Aug under positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels 13-15 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were in decline following the post-CME shock
arrival enhancements from 11 Aug. Total magnetic field strength (Bt)
ranged between 1 and 6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between -5
nT and +4 nT. The Bz component was mostly southward for the latter half
of the period. Solar wind speeds were initially steady 430-450 km/s
before declining to around 400 km/s after 12/1700 UTC. Though quite
variable in the first half of the period, the phi angle was later
predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue declining toward nominal
levels for most of 13 Aug. Late on 13 Aug or early on 14 Aug,
enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of a corotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a +CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind
conditions will then persist through 15 Aug under +CH HSS influences.
Confidence in the magnitude of this CH HSS impact remains moderate, as
the coronal hole feature, while recurrent, is significantly larger than
during the previous solar rotation.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels under
declining CME influences.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet through 13
Aug. On 14-15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response
to +CH HSS influences with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming
or greater.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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