Message 27622 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 09 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20362_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260809/1347Z 35134@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260809/1347Z 17791@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260809/1345Z 6101@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260809/1232Z 20362@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. B-class activity was observed
from Region 4504 (S19E23. Axx/alpha) and departed Region 4498 (N14,
L=358). No other activity was observed.
There were two filament eruptions during the reporting period, both with
the potential for an Earth-directed component. The first eruption
started at approximately 08/0230 UTC, centered roughly just NE of disk
center. The associated CME first became visible in STEREO coronagraph
imagery at approximately 08/0323 UTC and in LASCO C2 at approximately
08/0412 UTC. Modeling indicates arrival at the near-Earth environment
either very late on 11 Aug or early on 12 Aug.
The second eruption started at approximately 08/0645 UTC, centered at
roughly S15W70. The associated CME first became visible in GOES CCOR1 at
approximately 08/0845 UTC and in STEREO at approximately 08/0908 UTC.
Modeling indicates that the bulk of the material will pass ahead and
below of Earth orbit; however modeling also suggested the structure is
likely to interact with the previous eruption and underlying CIR ahead
of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS, and thus influences from
this CME may be felt on 12 Aug.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be remain at very low levels. Solar
Orbiter PHI imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the
forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low levels
through 12 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 12 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected CME onset early on 08 Aug. Total field
(Bt) peaked at 19 nT at 08/1002 UTC. Bz component of the IMF had two
periods of sustained southward deflection: 3hrs with a max of -18 nT
starting at approximately 08/0900 UTC and 5+ hrs with a max of -17 nT
starting at approximately 08/1615 UTC. With the CME arrival, solar wind
speeds gradually increased to average of 350 km/s. Phi was variable
throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Further CME enhancements are possible late on 09 Aug due to the passing
of a more glancing CME that left the Sun on 04 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Major) storming conditions.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are expected on 09 Aug in response to
glancing CME influences, with 10 Aug once again returning to largely
quiet-unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist
through 11 Aug, with the potential for an isolated active period, due to
anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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