Message 27598 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 09 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20341_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 090031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels, with no feature in the GOES 18
Xray trace getting above B8. The five numbered active regions remained
relatively quiet and stable, if not in slight decay.
There were two filament eruptions during the reporting period, both with
the potential for an Earth-directed component. The first eruption
started at approximately 08/0230 UTC, centered roughly just NE of disk
center. The associated CME first became visible in STEREO coronagraph
imagery at approximately 08/0323 UTC and in LASCO C2 at approximately
08/0412 UTC. Modeling indicates arrival at the near-Earth environment
either very late on 11 Aug or early on 12 Aug.
The second eruption started at approximately 08/0645 UTC, centered at
roughly S15W70. The associated CME first became visible in GOES CCOR1 at
approximately 08/0845 UTC and in STEREO at approximately 08/0908 UTC.
Modeling indicates that the bulk of the material will pass ahead and
below of Earth orbit; however modeling also suggested the structure is
likely to interact with the previous eruption and underlying CIR ahead
of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS, and thus influences from
this CME may be felt on 12 Aug.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance
for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 09-11 Aug.
Current Solar Orbiter PHI imagery suggests no significant returning
regions during the forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 11 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 11 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual CME arrival, beginning at
approximately 08/0550 UTC. Total field (Bt) increased from 2-4 nT to a
peak of 19 nT at 08/1002 UTC, with Bt averaging 15 nT for the rest of
the reporting period. The Bz component of the IMF had two periods of
sustained substantial southward deflection: 3hrs with a max of -18 nT
starting at approximately 08/0900 UTC and 5+ hrs with a max of -17 nT
starting at approximately 08/1615 UTC. With the CME arrival, solar wind
speeds gradually increased to average of 350 km/s. Phi was variable
throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Relatively weak CME enhancements may persist into 08 Aug, alongside
potential weak influences from a negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far south to become
significantly geoeffective. Further enhancements are likely late on 09
Aug due to the passing of a more glancing CME that left the Sun on 04
Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Major) storming conditions.
.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are expected on 09 Aug in response to
glancing CME influences, with 10 Aug once again returning to largely
quiet-unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist
through 11 Aug, with the potential for an isolated active period, due to
anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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