Message 27540 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 08 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20308_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|WG3K|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260808/1349Z 35071@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260808/1349Z 57469@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260808/1332Z 38344@WG3K.#SMD.MD.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260808/1332Z 57558@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260808/1332Z 6489@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
R:260808/1331Z 85035@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260808/1317Z 6047@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260808/1231Z 20308@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels, with no feature in the GOES 18
Xray trace getting above B7. The new emerging region in the SE was
numbered as Region 4504 (S18E38, Axx/alpha). The other four numbered
active regions remained relatively quiet and stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance
for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 08-10 Aug.
Current Solar Orbiter PHI imagery suggests no significant returning
regions during the forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 10 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 10 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a slight disturbance likely due to weak
CME influences from events that left the Sun on 04 Aug. Total field
increased from 2-4 nT to a peak of 18 nT at 08/0752 UTC. The Bz
component of the IMF underwent an extremely brief southward deflection
of -16 nT during this time, but was otherwise +/- 3 nT. Solar wind
speeds indicated a gradual uptrend, ending the period near 355 km/s. Phi
was predominantly positive with several excursions into a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
Relatively weak CME enhancements may persist into 08 Aug, alongside
potential weak influences from a negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far south to become
significantly geoeffective. Further enhancements are likely late on 09
Aug due to the passing of a more glancing CME that left the Sun on 04
Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 Aug as any CME
influences wane. Periods of active conditions are likely on 09 Aug in
response to glancing CME influences, with 10 Aug once again returning to
largely quiet-unsettled levels.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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