Message 27432 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 07 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20253_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260807/1347Z 34982@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260807/1346Z 23426@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260807/1337Z 6006@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260807/1231Z 20253@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 071231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the reporting
period was an isolated C1.0 flare at 06/1929 UTC from a new unnumbered
active region in the southeast. The four numbered active regions
remained relatively quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance
for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 07-09 Aug.
Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no significant returning
regions during the forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 09 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels over 07-09 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a slight disturbance likely due to weak
CME influences from events that left that Sun on 03 Aug. Total field
increased from 2-4 nT to a peak of 6 nT at 07/1119 UTC. The Bz component
of the IMF underwent an extremely brief southward deflection of -5 nT
during this time, but was otherwise +/- 3 nT. Solar wind speeds
continued a downward trend, ending the period near 270 km/s. Phi was
predominantly positive with several excursions into a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
Relatively weak CME enhancements may persist into 08 Aug, alongside
potential weak influences from a negative polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far south to become
significantly geoeffective. Further enhancements are likely late on 09
Aug due to the passing of a more glancing CME that left the Sun on 04
Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming periods, are possible late on 07 Aug in response to
CME arrivals. Quiet to unsettled conditions are then expected on 08 Aug
as any CME influences wane. Periods of active conditions are likely
again on 09 Aug in response to glancing CME influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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