Message 27431 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 07 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20252_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260807/1347Z 34981@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260807/1346Z 23424@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260807/1335Z 6005@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260807/1231Z 20252@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2026
Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09
00-03UT 0.33 2.67 3.33
03-06UT 0.33 2.67 3.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.33 3.33
09-12UT 1.00 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 1.33 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 2.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.33 3.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2026
Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2026
Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to M-class flare activity will persist through 09 Aug when Regions
4498, 4500 and 4502 begin to exit the western limb.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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