Message 27408 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 07 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20236_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260807/0210Z 34964@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260807/0210Z 17622@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260807/0204Z 5981@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260807/0032Z 20236@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the reporting
period was an isolated C1.0 flare at 06/1929 UTC from a new unnumbered
active region in the southeast.
There are four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. Region 4498
(N14W56, Hsx/alpha) was relatively stable following its decay to a
unipolar group last period. Region 4500 (N19W53, Hrx/alpha) continued in
decay with the loss of mature penumbra. Region 4502 (S07W53, Dao/beta)
remained generally stable with continued flux consolidation. Region 4503
(S17E41, Dro/beta) exhibited modest new flux emergence and
consolidation.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance
for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 07-09 Aug. The
probability for M-class flaring drops further on 08 Aug as regions in
the western hemisphere rotate off the visible disk. Current Solar
Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no significant returning regions during the
forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels, reaching a peak flux of 537 pfu at 06/1800 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 09 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels over 07-09 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at quiet, ambient levels throughout the
period. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) held weak, staying between
below 4.0 nT across. The North-South (Bz) varied weakly with a maximum
deflection early in the period of -3 nT. Solar wind speeds reflected a
slow wind regime, declining from early values near 350 km/s to less than
300 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle was mostly in the
positive (away from the Sun) orientation aside from an approximately
3-hour diversion into the negative sector around 06/1630 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain in a slow wind regime
through early 07 Aug. By late 07 Aug, enhancements are anticipated to
begin due to the expected arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on 03
Aug. Confidence in these CME arrivals is moderate. CME enhancements may
persist into 08 Aug, alongside potential weak influences from a negative
polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) that is likely too far
south to become significantly geoeffective. Further enhancements are
likely late on 09 Aug due to the passing of a more glancing CME that
left the Sun on 04 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet into 07 Aug. Active
conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are
possible late on 07 Aug in response to CME arrivals, with unsettled
conditions likely persisting into 08 Aug as CME influences wane. Active
conditions are likely again on 09 Aug in response to glancing CME
influences.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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