Message 27387 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 06 Aug 26 12:51:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20201_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|VE3CGR|WG0A|KD6MTU|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260806/1449Z 89871@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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R:260806/1251Z 20201@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 061251
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 06 1250 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2026
Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08
00-03UT 1.33 1.67 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 1.67 2.00
06-09UT 0.67 1.33 2.33
09-12UT 0.67 1.33 2.67
12-15UT 1.00 2.67 2.67
15-18UT 1.00 3.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.00 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 1.33 3.33 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026
Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026
Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08
R1-R2 15% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: With ongoing region decay and several active regions in the
western hemisphere expected to rotate off the disk over the coming days,
there is a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares
over 06-08 Aug. Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no
significant returning regions during the forecast period.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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