Message 27386 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 06 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20200_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260806/1504Z 34946@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260806/1504Z 17594@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260806/1429Z 5964@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260806/1231Z 20200@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 061231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 4498 (N14W57, Hsx/alpha),
4500 (N18W53, Hrx/alpha), 4502 (S08W53, Dao/beta) and 4503 (S16E40,
Bxo/beta) were all relatively stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
A slight chance (10%) for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts from M-class flare activity will persist through 08 August.
Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no significant returning
regions during the forecast period.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 08 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels over 06-08 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at quiet, ambient levels throughout the
period. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) held weak,
staying below 3 nT. Solar wind speeds reflected a slow wind regime and
gradually declined to near 300 km/s by the end of the reporting period.
Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain in a slow wind regime
through early 07 Aug. By late 07 Aug, enhancements are anticipated to
begin due to the arrival of CMEs that departed the Sun on 03 Aug. These
CME enhancements may persist into 08 Aug, alongside potential weak
influences from a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH
HSS) that is likely too far south to become significantly geoeffective.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet into 07 Aug. Active
conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are
possible late on 07 Aug in response to CME arrivals, with unsettled
conditions likely persisting into 08 Aug as CME influences wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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