Message 27317 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 05 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20144_N4SD>
Path: GB7RJJ|PU2XTC|KF5JRV|KB1TAE|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260805/1331Z 17925@GB7RJJ.#79.GBR.EURO LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260805/1326Z 13826@PU2XTC.SP.BRA.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260805/1324Z 29366@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.24
R:260805/1322Z 3129@KB1TAE.#ANDR.ME.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260805/1320Z 23273@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260805/1231Z 20144@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 05-Aug 07 2026
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07
00-03UT 0.67 1.33 3.00
03-06UT 0.67 1.67 2.00
06-09UT 1.33 1.67 2.00
09-12UT 0.33 1.33 2.67
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
15-18UT 1.33 1.33 2.67
18-21UT 1.67 1.33 2.67
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 3.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026
Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07
R1-R2 20% 20% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 radio blackouts will persist
through 07 Aug. Probabilities begin to decrease slightly on 07 Aug as
Regions 4599 and 4501 exit the western with no significant regions due
to return.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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