Message 27282 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Wed, 05 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20122_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260805/0055Z 34868@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260805/0054Z 23236@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260805/0042Z 3571@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260805/0034Z 5890@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260805/0031Z 20122@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low with occasional low-level C-class flaring. The
largest flare of the period was a C1.2/Sf flare from new Region 4503
(S18E65, Axx/alpha) at 04/1158 UTC.
There are six numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4498 (N14W29,
Dso/beta) showed fragmentation in its leader spot and flux cancellation
in its trailing spots. Region 4499 (N04W65, Cai/beta) underwent
penumbral decay in its leading spot and overall decay in its trailing
spots, including the loss of negative polarity penumbra. Region 4500
(N18W25, Cso/beta) saw minor penumbral decay in its leading spot and
continued to exhibit transitory trailing pores of both polarities.
Region 4501 (S07W67, Cso/beta) showed some submergence in its trailing
spots. Region 4502 (S07W25, Dao/beta) had some slight new emergence but
was primarily characterized by consolidation. Region 4503 was newly
numbered this period after rotating onto the southeast limb.
Eruptions to the northeast and southeast were observed in STEREO COR2
imagery at approximately 04/1330 UTC and later in GOES-19 CCOR1 imagery
at 04/1400 UTC. Dimming, field line movement, and post-eruptive arcades
observed in SUVI 195 and 284 imagery suggest a source location to the
northeast of Region 4498 for the northward eruption, while no obvious
source was identified for the eruption to the southeast. While most of
the ejective material was directed out of the ecliptic, minor glancing
impacts from the northward eruption are anticipated on 09 August.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares 05-07 Aug, primarily due to the flare
potential of Regions 4498, 4499, and 4502.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels, reaching a peak flux of 371 pfu observed at 04/1705
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 07 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels 05-07 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a general return to ambient levels
following previous CME influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt)
opened the period around 10 nT before undergoing a steady decline to
around 3 nT by 04/0930 UTC. The North-South (Bz) component was mostly
southward early in the period with a maximum deflection of -9 nT.
Following the drop in Bt, Bz turned weakly variable. Solar wind speeds
held relatively steady between 375 and 425 km/s. The phi angle was
predominantly in the positive (away from the Sun) sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue toward a slow wind regime
until early to mid-day on 07 Aug, when enhancements associated with CMEs
that departed the Sun on 03 Aug arrive.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period with a single synoptic period of
active conditions before declining to quiet levels in the latter half of
the period.
.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet over 05-06 Aug.
Active conditions with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming or
greater are likely on 07 Aug in response to CME effects.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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