Message 27260 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <20022_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260804/1403Z 34851@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260804/1402Z 23209@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260804/1232Z 20022@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 041231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 4498 (N14W30, Dso/beta), 4499
(N04W65, Dai/beta) and 4501 (S07W68, Cso/beta) underwent decay and were
relatively quiet. Region 4502 (S07W24, Dao/beta) continued consolidating
in its leading spots and remained quiet as well.
A CME first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately
03/1224 UTC, that was discussed in the previous reporting period, was
assessed with now available C2 and C3 imagery. This new data had little
effect on modeling parameters, and when combined with two other events
from 03 Aug, still indicate potential for weak CME influences to Earth
on 07 Aug. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 04-06 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 06 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 06 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing CME influences. Total
magnetic field strength ranged from 5 to 11 nT before ending the period
at 2-3 nT. The Bz component of the magnetic field was mostly southward
with the largest deflections reaching -10 nT. Solar wind speeds were
between approximately 350 km/s to 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly
positive while undertaking several excursions to a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
Enhancements from CME effects are likely to continue, yet weaken,
through 04 Aug, with a return to nominal levels expected by 05 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was unsettled to active.
.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels are expected on 04 Aug as lingering CME
effects persist early in the period, with predominantly quiet conditions
prevailing over 05-06 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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