Message 27259 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <20021_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260804/1400Z 34850@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260804/1359Z 23208@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260804/1231Z 20021@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 041231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
00-03UT 4.00 1.33 1.33
03-06UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.33 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 3.67 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.67 1.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity will
persist through 06 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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