Message 27226 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <19999_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260804/0229Z 34838@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260804/0229Z 23173@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260804/0215Z 5853@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260804/0032Z 19999@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
00-03UT 4.00 1.33 1.33
03-06UT 3.33 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 3.00 1.67 1.67
09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 1.00 1.33
21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active periods are expected early on 04 Aug due to
persistent CME activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 04-Aug 06 2026
Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 04-06 Aug primarily due to
the potential of Regions 4498 and 4502.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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