Message 27225 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 04 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <19998_N4SD>
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FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with occasional low-level C-class
flaring observed. The largest event of the period was a C1.4 flare from
Region 4498 (N14W17, Dsi/beta-delta) at 03/1133 UTC.
There are six numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4498 is the
largest on the disk and showed new flux emergence in the peripheral
spots directly south of the primary central spot. Region 4499 (N04W51,
Dai/beta) also showed rapid emergence within its trailing spots. Region
4502 (S06W10, Dao/beta) exhibited notable flux emergence and
consolidation across both poles, growing significantly larger over the
past 24 hours in a rapid growth phase. All other regions are stable or
in a slight state of decline.
An eruption was observed in STEREO COR2 imagery to the east beginning at
approximately 03/0400 UTC, possibly associated with field line movement
near the east limb. A likely filament eruption in the vicinity of
Regions 4498 was observed in STEREO COR2 imagery beginning at 03/0838
UTC. Finally, a filament observed lifting off near S34W04 at roughly
03/1000 UTC in H-alpha imagery became visible in STEREO COR2 at 03/1223
UTC and GOES-19 CCOR1 at 03/1400 UTC. Minor Earth impacts from these
relatively slow-moving events are anticipated on 07 August. A data gap
in SOHO LASCO imagery began at 03/0500 UTC and remained unavailable for
CME analysis. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 04-06 Aug primarily due to the
potential of Regions 4498 and 4502.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels, with a peak flux of 342 pfu observed at 03/0630 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 06 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 06 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing CME influences following the
mid-day shock arrival on 02 August. Total magnetic field strength (Bt)
started around 15 nT before steadily declining toward 6 to 8 nT late in
the period. A recovery back up to 11 nT occurred around 03/1900 UTC. The
North-South (Bz) component was predominantly southward and reached a
maximum southward deflection of -10 nT. Solar wind speeds held
relatively steady ranging between 355 and 400 km/s. The phi angle was
variable, oscillating between positive and negative sectors before
settling in a positive (towards the Sun) orientation after 03/1645 UTC.
.Forecast...
Enhancements from CME effects are likely to continue, yet weaken,
through 04 Aug, with a return to nominal levels expected by 05 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field started the period at active levels before calming
to quiet to unsettled levels under residual CME influences.
.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels are expected on 04 Aug as lingering CME
effects persist early in the period, with quiet conditions expected
05-06 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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