Message 27203 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 03 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <19976_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|KI0BK|N5MDT|WG0A|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX10 KWNP 031231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
00-03UT 4.33 3.00 1.33
03-06UT 4.00 3.33 1.67
06-09UT 2.67 3.00 1.67
09-12UT 3.33 2.33 1.67
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 3.67 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 2.33 1.33 1.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 03 Aug due to
influence from a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 03-05 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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