Message 27202 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 03 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <19975_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260803/1415Z 34819@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260803/1414Z 17396@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260803/1404Z 5840@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260803/1231Z 19975@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class activity was
observed. Only Region 4502 (S05W06, Dai/beta) exhibited notable growth,
with most of growth observed in its intermediate and trailer spots. Only
minor changes were observed in the remainder of the numbered active
regions on the visible disk.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 03-05 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels through 05 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be near background levels over the next three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow-moving CME, likely from
an eruptive event that left the Sun on 30 Jul. Total magnetic field
strength reached a peak of 21 nT at 02/1455 UTC and maintained between
9-15 nT for most of the reporting period. Bz was predominantly oriented
southward and reached a maximum of -16 nT at 02/1503 UTC. Solar wind
speeds remained relatively slow, with speeds observed between ~330-430
km/s over the past 24 hours.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to persist at enhanced levels due to
the continued influence of a transient currently observed in solar wind
data. Enhancements from CME effects are likely to continue, yet weaken,
late on 03 Aug. A return to nominal levels is likely by 04 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels following the
arrival of what is thought to be a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 03 Aug as CME effects persist.
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return by 04 Aug,
diminishing further by 05 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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