Message 27146 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 03 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <19958_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|N4SD
R:260803/0252Z 34780@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260803/0252Z 23077@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260803/0032Z 19958@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 030031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with mostly minor C-class flares
observed. The largest event of the period, a C6.3/Sf flare at 02/0535
UTC, was observed from an area around the NW limb. Region 4498 (N15E04,
Dai/beta-delta) continued to be the largest and most complex region on
the visible disk, with Region 4501 (S07W42, Dso/beta) showing the most
growth. Only minor changes were observed in the other active regions
during the period.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 03-05 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, with a
peak value of 816 pfu at 02/1225 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was near background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at normal to
moderate levels through 05 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to be near background levels over the next three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters observed a mild shock at 02/1129 UTC from what is
believed to be either the late arrival of the slow moving CME from 27
Jul, or the glancing effects from the CME from 30 Jul. Total magnetic
field strength increased from 4 nT to ~14 nT during the shock onset, but
eventually saw a peak of 22 nT at 1500 UTC. Bz initially rotated
southward to -8 nT, ultimately reaching -17 nT at 02/1502 UTC. Solar
wind speeds increased from ~290 km/s to ~350 km/s, then unsteadily
climbed to 440 km/s at 02/1717 UTC. Phi was in a positive orientation
the entire period.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to persist at enhanced levels due to
the continued influence of a transient currently observed in solar wind
data. Enhancements are likely to continue, yet weaken, late on 03 Aug as
CME effects endure. A return to near background levels is likely by 04
Aug as CME influences diminish.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet the first half of the period, then
increased to reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels following the arrival of
what is thought to be either the late arrival of the slow moving CME
from 27 Jul, or the glancing effects from the CME from 30 Jul.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected, with a chance for G2 (Moderate)
storm conditions, early on 03 Aug as the aforementioned CME effects
continue. Active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, are
likely to persist through mid- to late-day on 03 Aug as CME effects
slowly decrease. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return
by 04 Aug, diminishing further by 05 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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