Message 27145 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Mon, 03 Aug 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <19957_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|WG3K|WW6Q|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
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R:260803/0240Z 57059@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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R:260803/0227Z 3380@N3FUD.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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FXXX10 KWNP 030031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
00-03UT 4.00 3.00 1.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 1.67
06-09UT 4.00 3.00 1.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.33 1.67
12-15UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 3.00 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 2.67 1.33 1.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 03 Aug as the
CME ongoing effects persist. No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are
expected on 04-05 Aug, as no further transient or recurrent solar wind
significant features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 03-05 Aug due to the flare potential of the active regions currently
located on the visible solar disk.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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