Message 27051 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 01 Aug 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <19888_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260801/1400Z 34710@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260801/1400Z 22961@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260801/1313Z 5742@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260801/1232Z 19888@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
00-03UT 1.00 4.00 3.33
03-06UT 1.00 4.33 4.00
06-09UT 1.33 5.67 (G2) 3.00
09-12UT 0.67 4.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00
15-18UT 1.67 3.00 1.00
18-21UT 2.33 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 3.33 1.67 0.67
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over 02
Aug due to anticipated effects from the arrival of a CME that left the
Sun on 30 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
S1 or greater 25% 25% 5%
Rationale: A decreasing chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms is
forecast over 01-03 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 01-03 Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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