Message 27050 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 01 Aug 26 12:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <19887_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260801/1400Z 34709@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260801/1400Z 22960@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260801/1312Z 5741@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260801/1231Z 19887@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4499 (N04W15, Cai/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1.7/Sf flare at 31/1357
UTC. Region 4501 (S07W20, Dao/beta) exhibited some areal growth. The
remaining regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in
gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 01-03 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to the S1 (Minor) storm
level at 31/1335 UTC and remained there until 31/1740 UTC. Current
levels remain elevated but below the 10 pfu (S1) threshold.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days. There remains a chance for S1
(Minor) solar radiation storms over 01-02 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Total magnetic
field strength reached 6 nT. No significant periods of Bz south were
observed. Solar wind speeds remained below ~335 km/s. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue near nominal levels until
02 Aug, when an enhancement from a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul
passes by Earth. Enhancements are likely to continue on 03 Aug as
CME effects persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely over 01 Aug. G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 02 Aug with the anticipated
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul. Enhanced conditions are
likely to persist into 03 Aug as CME effects wane.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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