Message 27015 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 01 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Message-ID: <19871_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|NS2B|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260801/0239z @:K7EK.#NOKY.KY.USA.NOAM $:19871_N4SD
R:260801/0237Z 56909@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260801/0229Z 22920@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260801/0210Z 5716@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260801/0032Z 19871@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX12 KWNP 010031
DAYDIS
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels this period. Region 4499 (N05W08,
Dao/beta) was responsible for the majority of the flare activity,
despite exhibiting overall decay and simplification in its magnetic
structure. Region 4498 (N14E22, Dai/beta-gamma) added several
intermediate and trailer spots, and produced a C3.1/Sf flare at 31/0316
UTC, the largest of the period. Region 4500 (N18E28, Cao/beta) added a
few peripheral spots and contributed a C1.8 flare at 31/0129 UTC. Region
4501 (S08W12, Cao/beta) also grew slightly, but was inactive during the
period. The remaining regions were mostly unchanged or were in decay.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 01-03 August.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period above the S1
(Minor) storm level, but fell below S1 after 31/0715 UTC. A subsequent
rise brought levels back above the S1 level at 31/1335 UTC, but levels
have since decreased to just under the 10 pfu threshold.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days. S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms are expected on 01 Aug. There is a chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 02 Aug and
a slight chance on 03 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength reached 6 nT, Bz was between +/-4 nT, and solar wind speeds
were mostly between ~300-335 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented
in the positive solar sector.
.Forecast...
There is a diminishing chance for an additional disturbance early on 01
August with the arrival of a faint CME that left the Sun late on 27 July
combined with weak CH HSS influence. However, confidence is low in this
forecast. A more pronounced enhancement in solar wind parameters is
likely late on 01 Aug to early on 02 Aug as the CME that left the Sun on
30 Jul passes by Earth. Enhancements are likely to continue on 03 Aug as
CME effects persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, are still possible through 01 August due to weak positive
polarity CH HSS influences combined with glancing or relatively weak CME
effects from events that left the Sun over the course of 26 and 27 July.
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 02 Aug with the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul. Enhanced
conditions are likely to persist into 03 Aug as CME effects persist, yet
slowly taper off.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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