Message 27014 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sat, 01 Aug 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <19870_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|KB8UVN|N3MEL|N3FUD|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260801/0220Z 34690@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260801/0219Z 56908@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
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R:260801/0213Z 22919@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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R:260801/0032Z 19870@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 010031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
00-03UT 3.00 4.00 3.33
03-06UT 2.33 4.33 4.00
06-09UT 2.00 5.67 (G2) 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 4.33 2.33
12-15UT 3.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 3.00 1.00
18-21UT 3.67 1.67 1.00
21-00UT 4.00 1.67 0.67
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02
Aug due to the anticipated arrival of CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds (S1 - Minor level).
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
S1 or greater 75% 25% 10%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected on 01 Aug.
There is a chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storms on 02 Aug and a slight
chance on 03 Aug.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 01-Aug 03 2026
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on 01-03
Aug.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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