Message 24195 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Sun, 14 Jun 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <15948_N4SD>
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FXXX10 KWNP 140031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jun 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 14-Jun 16 2026
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
06-09UT 2.67 3.67 2.67
09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 1.67 2.67 2.67
15-18UT 1.67 1.67 1.67
18-21UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 2.67
Rationale: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 14 Jun due to -CH HSS influences and the passage of CMEs that
left the Sun on 09 Jun and 11 Jun.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 14-Jun 16 2026
Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 14-16 Jun.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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